Business cycles in Iran: Evidence from asymmetry and correlated shocks

News Shocks and Business Cycles: Evidence from Forecast Data∗

This paper proposes the use of data on expectations to identify the role of news shocks in business cycles. This approach exploits the fact that news shocks cause agents to adjust their expectations about the future even when current fundamentals are not affected. Using data on expectations, we estimate a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model that incorporates news shocks for the U.S. ...

Institutional Ownership, Business Cycles and Earnings Informativeness of Income Smoothing: Evidence from Iran

Managers engage in income smoothing either to communicate private information about future earnings to investors (informativeness hypothesis) or to distort financial performance for opportunistic purposes (opportunism hypothesis). Business cycles and the monitoring role of institutional ownership may affect the earnings informativeness of income smoothing. The purpose of this research is to exa...

News Shocks and Business Cycles

T he discussion surrounding the recent deep recession seems to have shifted the focus from currently used business cycle models to the standard Keynesian model (by which we mean the “old Keynesian,” as opposed to the new Keynesian, model). In the Keynesian model, pessimism among consumers and investors about the economy will simultaneously lower aggregate consumption and aggregate investment, a...

The Impact of ICT Shocks on Business Cycle Some Evidence from Iran

From Cycles to Shocks: Progress in Business-Cycle Theory

Earl y analysts of business cycles believed that each cyclical phase of the economy carries within it the seed that generates the next cyclical phase. A boom generates the next recession; that recession generates the next boom; and the economy is caught forever in a self-sustaining cycle. In contrast, modern theories of business cycles attribute cyclical fluctuations to the cumulative effects o...

Shocks and Irish Business Cycles , 1922 - 1979

In this paper I estimate a SVAR model to study the transmission of UK shocks to the Irish economy over the period 1922-1979, using annual time series for CPI inflation and output growth. UK aggregate demand and supply shocks have large and significant impacts on Irish inflation, but smaller impacts on Irish real GDP growth. A historical decomposition indicates that UK aggregate demand shocks pl...